Coronavirus: In Retrospect

So, a committee of MPs has spoken; that there was much left to be desired regarding the UK Government’s response to the pandemic. In fact, the levels of non-desired outcomes were so high they called the pandemic ‘one of the country’s worst public health failures’. That’s quite strong words, particularly when you remember that this committee was not even a full enquiry with powers to summon witnesses to provide evidence under oath.

But on the plus side; we now know why Johnson went on holiday a few days before, don’t we?

The Government’s partisans and rent-a-hacks instantly rushed to defend this, trying to explain away the bad news by saying they’d acted the best they could at the time, it was the advice they were getting and nobody could have improved the results. Hmm… really?

Let’s put that to the test. By doing a quick review of some of my old blog posts and seeing how they held up with the lens of hindsight. And what the Government actually did.

Risk, Statistics and You

15^th February ’20

I’m way off the mark here. I completely fail to appreciate the coming storm; if I remember right I didn’t even consider the possibility it would become an pandemic. I think I felt that we were going to see a repeat of SARS some twenty years back; a epidemic which was contained before it was lapping on British shores.

The only bit I was sort of right about was my fagpacket fatality rates, which at 2% was rather close to the ~1.5% we eventually saw in the UK in 2020. But because I never even considered the possibility that we’d end up seeing 50,000+ plus cases weekly for several months, I never considered the cumulative effect on our heath services. Or what it would do if it ripped into the UK’s rather vulnerable-heavy demographics (such as obesity and age). But in my defence, that post was not a real focus on Coronavirus, more a talk about risk and statistics. Though at this point the whole UK known case-load was nine.

(That bit is important, but that’s a topic for another day).

How Presenteeism Will Cause the Pandemic

2^nd March ’20

My first proper focus is much more on the ball. I still don’t appreciate just how contagious the virus is (measuring in months, not weeks), no – but I do realise that we were cruising fast towards a full-blown pandemic which would require ‘China-level controls’ (aka lockdowns) to break the transmission rates. I got the issue that the current system of sick pay etc was simply inadequate to the task, that many employers could not be trusted to allow their workers to take the time off to isolate unless forced to.

At this point, the Government was steadfastly denying there was any real problem. It was still recommending (not ordering) self-isolation for suspected cases (which prompted the above post), while saying that any restrictions would damage the economy. On that very day the number of known UK cases was 36, and the first COBRA meeting was held on the topic. Johnson’s appearance was a negatory. So, round one to me.

The Coronavirus Economic Crisis

17^th March ’20

Most of this post is a quick outline of how consumer economics work, so readers could understand the seriousness of the coronavirus-related implosion – pointing out that the death-spiral was one never seen before economically and thus, needed direct stimulus to the population to stop everything falling apart.

Three days later the first Lockdown was announced, along with the furlough / self-employment schemes – systems which were both more generous but less universal than my suggestion, which was more akin to what they did in the USA. Clearly, at the time I was writing the Government was working hard to assemble the systems to run all this – but I recall the lack of information out of them was so large that the announcement of said Lockdown was a complete shock.

I’ll call that another draw.

The Coronavirus Endgame?

25^th April ’20

The next few Coronavirus posts are better snapshot pieces, so we move forward a month where I tried to apply my mediocre knowledge to make a guestimate on how and when the pandemic may end. Re-reading it with the glories of hindsight, I cannot fault my logic, with one exception.

I did not consider the possibility of vaccinations conferring immunity (or something close to it for most) but not stopping contraction and/or transmission.

At that point, the Government was throwing cash at clinical trials for what will eventually become the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine while the death-toll clears 20,000 and the recovering Bozo announces we have ‘turned the tide (a comment which might have been the catalyst for the very post). Another draw, yes?

Johnson’s Dead Cat

29^th May ’20

The next prediction is once again on the money. Mainly spurred by my ‘reality based analysis’ using the points from above, I make it clear I don’t think it’s over at all, and we were courting disaster by being so blithe in regards to ‘reopening’ – that at best, it was a summer respite, a time to ‘come up for air’ before another Lockdown happened in the Autumn. Which everyone knows should have happened in October, and really happened in November.

Weird, that I win this round despite the fact we drew the previous one. Tentative conclusion; the Government was not listening to the advice. Which has since been proven – that Johnson is an eternal Micawber, ignoring anything that ‘is gloomy’, even if it’s truth.

Could Vaccines Make The Pandemic Worse?

2^nd February ’21

The next predictive post is not until we see the first fruits of the vaccine rollout, and it’s a rather decent one. I finally realise my mistake from April: immunity didn’t automatically mean zero transmission. I fret about how mass vaccinations might cause overconfidence and lead to the disease becoming endemic within our society. I wonder about a vaccine booster campaign will be needed later on. I also complain that the Government was not explaining this to the public. Well, they wouldn’t, because with the vaccine rollout was actually going well, mainly due to the fact they – or their dodgy mates – didn’t have anything to do with it save signing the cheques.

I grant another point for me, the clincher being that Johnson had said the very day before he was optimistic about overseas holidays that summer. Micawber just don’t learn, does he?

Riding The Third Wave!

4^th July ’21

With hindsight, I’m inclined to give myself a half-mark on this. I clearly identify the date where the Government had decided to declare Coronavirus ‘over’ (for political reasons) and try to force a sense of normality on the country. That it was now back to Plan A; to ride the wave of infections out and hope it burns out or something. I also make a as-yet unfulfilled prediction; that another ‘Lockdown’ (of some form) will only happen if the NHS teeters close to collapse under the strain and/or we get a new mutant variant.

Time will only tell on that one.

Results…

Well, I found three times where my predictions were clearly better than the Johnson Government’s – the best one being when I called a UK pandemic three weeks before the first Lockdown. And none of my predictions have been any more wrong than the Government’s either.

In short: if the Government’s actions through the pandemic was ‘the best they could do’, then they were too stupid to be the Government. Similar conclusions can be had when comparing the UK to other nations of our size and level of development; I think the only other which has been worse than the British response is the American, and that’s improved markedly after Trump’s end.

Nor do I think they’ve really learned from their mistakes either.

Let’s try to remember that, even when all the Tory hacks try to practice gaslighting, revisionism and outright lying about the past.

As everything on this blog, merely my own thoughts and opinions. Part of my Covid Pandemic and Essays series.

Riding The Third Wave!

So, apparently it’s full speed ahead for a complete ending of coronavirus restrictions on the 19^th of July; at this point two weeks and one day hence. The signs are obvious; it’s been leaked, Government Ministers have been talking about shit like ‘personal responsibility’ about masks and Johnson has a big announcement lined up for tomorrow. Yay! It’s all ended, didn’t we do so well? Don’t look at the massive deathtoll, or the fact we seem to have scored worst in the general response in the whole of Europe save perhaps Belarus. But…we’re doing well in the footie! Nice weather is here! Horray for us! Boris, our mate doing a moronic thumbs up at us on a big stonking flag, to ‘connect’ with us plebs! Quite coincidently, I wrote about how this government likes to create false, lying narratives literally a year ago to the day. Which slightly worryingly, was the last time they tried to pull this stunt and well… we know how it turned out last time.

Now, a lot from last year’s post applies again here, so I won’t do you a disservice by recycling content (simply giving you another link to read it yourself instead) so I will merely mention new stuff.

It’s quite clear; we’re in the ‘Third Wave’, but it is a rather strange wave. Deaths are still very low, and hospitalisations are thankfully still low when compared to the level of known infection out there. And the majority of this is down to the vaccine rollout; it’s stopping deaths and hospitalisations and blunting transmission and infection (for vaccines don’t make you immune). Most of the folks being infected now appear to be the young (under 30s and teenagers). Luckily, they’re the ones also less likely to die from the infection.

Plan A, Redux.

This means the emergency is over, in the government’s mind – this much I’m sure of. ‘An emergency’ in this case being ‘something which could cost us the next election’. ‘NHS obviously collapsing’ is clearly one of these, along with ‘the nations care homes turned into mortuaries’. Now these two scenarios have been removed, this means it’s ‘time to live with the virus’.

What’s more, the key Tory demographics – the old, the rich and the suburban – are not only the ones highest vaccinated, but also the ones most likely to be able to continue doing virus-limitation strategies, like homeworking if they so desire. This means that now coronavirus is merely a massive nuisance to them; they want to go on holidays, theatres and suchlike.

The groups poised to ‘take it on the chin’ are the ones who don’t vote Tory anyway, so their opinions are worthless. Let the nations twenty-somethings wheeze and stagger with ‘Long Covid’; I’m sure most are just faking it. Need to keep those kids in classes, ‘cos otherwise their parents might have to miss work to look after them. Speaking of which, our landlord mates are sad, so back to the office for you all cubicle-drones! All the previous support was so massively expensive, and now ‘there’s no money left’ when we all trudge back to the coal-face.

The Tories are back, in all their disgusting glory. Time to ride that wave, back to ‘normality’ where everything is exactly like it was in 2019 and we oiks forget any ‘silly ideas’ the pandemic gave us, like flexible work conditions, not being plagued with presenteeism and public services actually getting decent funding and respect.

Instead, we’ll get more lies, more Austerity, more flags and more culture war. And hoping the Tory voters are either too stupid, too blind or too selfish to notice/care for the damage being inflicted on those ‘other people’.

Yet… I’m not so sure that’s going to work.

As everything on this blog, merely my own thoughts and opinions. Part of my Covid Pandemic series.

‘No Jab No Job’ – Why It Won’t Work

I feel like I’m standing on the precipice, here; for the first time in this whole pandemic, I have huge misgivings about a government policy – which is putting me seemingly on the same side as Piers Corbyn and the assortment of loons, idiots, cranks, shills and other mental defectives which go under the very vague flag of ‘against the consensus’ regarding coronavirus and all that.

And it’s not a comfortable place – for I loathe such people. I’m pro-vaccine, for starters (and I practice what I preach). Yet the issue and plan makes me rather worried; not just for the issue itself, but the oft-misused ‘slippery slope’ argument. I’ve checked my workings, and feel that the points of worry that I have do have merit.

The Policy

In short, the UK government is to bring in a new vaccination law, making them mandatory for all people working in care homes in England – the only exception being medical. Also included in this are all visitors save emergency services and relatives of inhabitants.

The goal is a simple one (though unstated) – they desire to make a ‘vaccine firebreak’ around the care homes, in the hope to avoid a repeat of the mass deaths seen in waves in the two previous winters. For it’s looking increasingly likely we are going to see another wave this autumn / winter. I wish they’d openly say this, because the ONS stats show that coronavirus is now less than 1% of fatalities in care homes and the numbers seen at the peak in January (thus making the rollout of this policy not make a lot of sense on it’s own).

I cannot fault the intention here. In fact, when you simply look at the surface, it seems wise – even if vaccinations only reduce the transmission level (instead of halt it, as it is often assumed). There seems to be a bit of a ‘refusenik’ element amongst care staff; it seems only around 78% are at least partly vaccinated and this number dips lower than 50% in a few areas such as London. This being a group which was well near the top of the priority list in the first weeks of vaccine rollout.

That is a problem. I will not deny that. To be perfectly honest, I’m not hugely bothered about the cries of ‘the right to choose’ and all that in this case – we are in a midst of a pandemic, and like in wartime, there are times the state has to take the right action, even if it’s the unpopular one and some have to be coerced into compliance. This is a time where the ‘right to be stupid’ – such as thinking that you’re immune without it – cannot be afforded, particularly when you’re putting others at risk (though not a huge amount, as over 90% of home residents are vaccinated now).

No – my objections are purely of the pragmatic nature.

Points Of Worry

#1: It minimises ‘vaccine hesitancy’. Not everyone who is hesitant towards them is so because of ignorance or from a diet of anti-vax propaganda delivered by social media. To be hesitant is in fact a healthy reaction to have towards the unknown; it’s a critical element to self-protection – as I admitted myself, I was a little hesitant towards my own vaccination (both of them, in fact). Anxiety is not really logical either; you cannot talk someone out of it simply by showing say, statistics to ‘how safe it is’ – to borrow a line from the National Lottery, ‘it could be you’ who ends up with the seriously adverse reaction.

This new law will give care home bosses a stick to beat their underlings with; get jabbed or get fired. Some will try the persuasion tack (again) before resorting to the stick, but others won’t bother. I don’t know about you, but I’m never well-disposed towards folks who have railroaded me in the past.

Plus, I’m very loathe to start policing people’s feelings.

#2: It demands ‘oversharing’. In the proposal, there’s only one exemption; medical reasons. And it has to be proved. This threatens to become – for some – a series of very uncomfortable and intrusive interviews when you have to reveal perhaps a serious amount of your medical history to your boss. And perhaps your personnel file. And HR. And the other members of the ‘management team’.

There will be some people who would prefer to simply leave than go through this. Now, there is a method of doing this discreetly; the person’s GP providing a letter simply confirming they’re exempt. But you try getting a GP appointment right now for the letter. And if this government has proven anything, it’s the inability to organise anything correctly.

#3: It turns care home managers into ‘bouncers’. For they will be the ones enforcing this new law. Not just for staff, but for non-relative visitors too; the fire safety woman, the man with the therapy dog, the visiting chiropodist and the local pest controller. Will they have to confirm their vaccine status, or is it going to be an honour system? How ‘close’ do they have to get to the residents to require it – will the groundkeeping people be okay without it? What about the person from the industrial laundry with the consignment of bedding? What about data protection etc for all these strangers?

Naturally, this will end up creating lots more work – and thus costs – to people already overworked and for organisations already under severe financial strain.

#4: It will cause staff to leave. Unison estimates that a third of the unvaccinated will quit over this issue, which if true means the care sector will lose 7% of their workforce in the next few months. At a time where the care system is already short of labour to the tune of 110,000 people – a number which is, purely coincidently just over 7% of the total care sector workforce.

Not only will this increase fatalities in care homes due to a decline in care quality (due to overwork, burnout etc) but will also increase the reliance of care homes on agency staff – a group which were believed to have been the main ‘superspreaders’ at the start of the pandemic. Therefore, in the quest to make care homes safer can result in the exact opposite.

The point about ‘they can be redeployed’ is a theoretical one only. For there are barely any care jobs not in direct contact with people.

#5: It will encourage managers to cut corners. Care home labour is a seller’s market right now, even if you’re pigeonholed as ‘low skill’. Like with agricultural labour; it’s hard work for low pay but with the added bonus of more stress. And like with many of these things, Brexit has cut off the supplies of new cheap workers, while agency staff are hugely expensive. And even before the pandemic, the average labour turnover was around 50% – the tell-tale sign of workers constantly shifting around, trying to find a better employer.

Yet the person who is dealing with this issue is also the one being the vaccine bouncer in #3. If I was a manager, I could clearly feel the temptation to be ‘flexible in interpretation’ of the rules to retain staff. I may feel that my charges are safe anyway, if they’ve all been vaccinated so what is the worry? More worryingly, I may not overly care or even be some cranky anti-vaxxer anyway.

If the realistic chances of being caught are low, this will simply make the above option even more tempting.

#6: It will hinder future recruitment. If nothing else, all new people hired will have to wait two months before starting work if not yet vaccinated to ‘get their jabs’. It goes without saying, it will be a large disincentive for the folks not wanting to be vaccinated (though this may be good thing). At a time where hiring and retaining staff is already a massive headache.

It wouldn’t have been so bad if along with this policy Hancock also announced a tranche of cash to pay for a load of training for new care staff, with the implied message of ‘preparing the replacements for the quitting vaccine refuseniks’ but… well, that seems too much like common sense.

#7: The track record of this Government. Outside of the vaccine rollout (which is not down to them, but the NHS) all the responses so far in this pandemic have been on a sliding scale between ‘average’ and ‘dismal’, which does not give a huge amount of help that this one will be any different. Does not bode well in them trying to fix the myriad of unforeseen issues.

#8: It implies vaccinations are cure-alls. They’re not. They’re great in stopping death and decent at slowing down transmission, but they’re not a silver bullet. People need to respect that; having ‘all staff vaccinated’ doesn’t mean that all the PPE, social distancing etc can be dumped (at least, not yet).

In fact, vaccinations could make the situation worse in the respect that more asymptomatics will be out and about, when many of them if unvaccinated would be at home, sick and infecting nobody.

* * *

Many of these issues can be dealt with – if handled with tact, honesty and a bit of creativity. Much of the issues around ‘low take up rates’ with care workers I suspect is strongly down to the demographics of care workers in the first place; for example, they are often not that well educated and disproportionately hail from ethnic minorities (who also score poorly for vaccine take-up) – meaning that if we can get their uptake up, the care worker one should follow suit.

What’s more, we need these people. More than we traditionally admit. And definitely more than what we pay them. And these people are feeling burnt out and unappreciated and this policy can and will be seen as a sign of disrespect towards them as both individuals and as a profession.

Of all the pandemic-related problems right now, the care system is one which is not currently actually having a skip-fire. Deaths and hospitalisations are very low, a variant of ‘normal service’ is returning in regards to visitors and so on; and much of this is down to the labours of said care workers.

Which is the crux of my argument. If the care system was a skip-fire, I’d be in favour of this policy. If we were talking about SARS and not Covid levels of lethality, again in favour. But we are not; at least not at the moment. The ‘road of persuasion’ had not been exhausted. It may be able to break the back of transmission without forcing vaccines on anyone. And the benefits of doing so are outweighed by the costs of the compulsion.

It’s almost like they’re trying to distract us plebs from something…

.As everything on this blog, merely my own thoughts and opinions. Part of my Covid Pandemic and Essays series.

My Coronavirus Vaccination Experience

It started with a letter. White and NHS Blue, with strict instructions on the back to return to sender if undeliverable. With suspicion I opened it, unsure what it was – the only thing I could think of was they’ve found a problem for an old issue I’d had checked a year before at my local polyclinic (turned out to be nothing).

Clearly it wasn’t; it was an invitation to book a coronavirus vaccination appointment instead.

At first, I didn’t believe it. I am young, healthy, work in an field not defined as ‘at risk’ (at least, not seemingly at risk than others) and don’t think of myself as ‘with a medical condition’ or anything. Except the letter said I was ‘clinically vulnerable’. That was slightly worrying; it was the first I’d heard of this ‘vulnerability’, and I worked in public through the whole pandemic to date.

The next part was that I thought it was a mistake – I mean, surely it’s a mistake! It’s only March. The roll-out can’t be that far ahead; I knew people who were older and/or sicker who’d not got it yet. This wouldn’t be the first time something had gone wrong; around five years ago the NHS summoned me to a Lupus clinic under the impression I was a person four decades older and living in a different part of the country. The letter was rather obviously a computer-generated jobbie and everyone knows how they can fuck up…

My first instinct was to call my GP. Well, my surgery; I think my GP retired some time ago (which shows how often I need their services). But I knew they were pretty backlogged at the best of times and they were also operating as a vaccination centre. Plus, I couldn’t remember their number. So, on a hunch I decided to go online to read the definition of ‘clinically vulnerable’, which I found on NHS Direct.

After a couple of minutes of searching, found said list. Went through it, still a touch nonplussed. Then I worked it out; I was ‘clinically vulnerable’ as of two weeks before, when an old childhood condition on my medical file was shunted into ‘Group 6’, and thus was eligible.

To be honest, this news actually pissed me off a bit. I’d spent the last three months attacking all ‘vaccine hesitancy’ which came near me with the gusto of an angry dog, with the assumption by the time my turn had come around nearly all their question-marks regarding it would have been sorted out. Yet due to a quirk of the system, I got to go early to help answer those question-marks instead.

* * *

A small part of me was tempted to simply ‘forget’ I had been sent the letter. After all, nobody else actually knew about it. But I had to set an example, or at least not be a fucking hypocrite. Plus, I didn’t want to actually get sick with coronavirus either (or sick again, as I suspect I caught it right at the start of the pandemic, in fact before it was a pandemic). In short; for reasons good or bad, I had to put my arm where my mouth was.

Then there’s the issue that I was perhaps ‘taking it from someone more deserving’. On the surface, this makes a bit of sense; after all, it would be better if our teachers, police officers or even delivery drivers didn’t get sick from doing their job, while me being ill wouldn’t really affect much at all (at least not in the wider world). Yet there was no way I could ensure it would go to them; it would simply go to someone – who may or may not be ‘deserving’.

It was at this point my own self-interest kicked in; reasoning that I’d had almost fuck all assistance during this pandemic and I was thousands of quid in the red due to it. I may be using a technicality to jump the queue, but you know what – fuck it. Due to some quirk of fate, I’d actually been given a good ‘Chance?’ card for once and wasn’t going to put the thing pack in the pile for another to have instead.

Plus, I’d had swine flu back in 2009, I really didn’t like it and coronavirus could be worse. And dying of coronavirus would prove a cramp in my long-term plans.

So, I fired up the computer, went to the page the letter told me. Entered my NHS number, name and date of birth – and it was accepted. Damn. Next, I was asked where I wanted to get vaccinated. It was at this point I came to appreciate there is in fact two vaccination systems – ‘local’ and ‘national’; because places like my own GP’s was not an option. That seemingly was the ‘local’ track, where your doctor called you in to get jabbed, while the ‘national’ system was done via mass letters and this online booking system.

On realising this, I was a little worried; didn’t want to have to make the trek to some remote locale. Luckily, there was a vaccination centre in my own town; buried somewhere in the warren of the large industrial / office park. Next, the time/date. This I wasn’t expecting – that I could choose a convenient one for me, rather than the ‘this is convenient for us’. I went with 6PM, on the Sunday two weeks hence. I theorised that if I was to have any side-effects, might as well have Monday (my usual day off). I also booked my second dose at the same time; twelve weeks later.

And it was done. I was given my appointment code, confirmation email sent. The online booking system ran very well indeed; clear, simple to use. But the important question was; would the rest of the system be as smooth?

* * *

I’d decided to walk to the vaccination centre; it was, at best 40 minutes away. A bit of distance, but nothing major. Two birds with one stone; the walk would be in lieu of my run. While it didn’t tell me to do so on the letter or on the site, I’d had a light meal perhaps an hour before, remembering vaguely somewhere that vaccinations shouldn’t be done on an empty stomach. Nothing too spicy either; not fair to be reeking of say garlic while close to the one doing the jabbing.

I’ll admit; I was nervous. This mood was improved by the weather immediately making a turn for the worse, causing the start of light drizzle. Okay, I had a decent coat and shoes, but if it pissed it down I’d be rather drowned-looking by the time I’d got to the centre. However, luckily it merely continued to threaten, rather than deliver rain.

One of my main worries had been a difficulty in finding the place, something unfounded as by the major junction signs had been put up providing directions. Simply followed the arrows, ending up near a very nondescript office complex surrounded by the ‘discreet’ security fencing. And a couple of people in high-vis manning the turn-off road.

The looks they gave me was clear; I was the only one who’d not arrived by car (at least, not on their shift). Asked me for my phone code; my reply being that I didn’t have one, merely showed by invitation letter (to which I’d put my appointment number on). Just a formality; waved me through and told me to follow the signs.

Down the side-road, through a multi-story car park, coming up to the side entry to the building. Here, the security became tighter; couple of security guards, the woman with the clipboard requesting my name and date of birth. I gave it, and I was waved through.

Through a warren or corridors; in hindsight, this was deliberately so for any surge in patients could be queued up in the mandatory socially distanced manner. However, this being a Sunday evening it was a slightly surreal look of the ‘patients’ going through the warren, outnumbered by the ‘staff’ by at least 5 to 1. Got asked for my details perhaps three more times when inside; I think it’s to make sure nobody was trying to masquerade as somebody else (though admittedly, a well-schooled masquerader could pass this, as they never ask for any form of ID). Then finally, after having passed the third set of guards and the fourth hand sanitiser station, I finally reached the ‘jabbing room’.

Just a very everyday room, this one reminding me of those blah conference rooms you can rent in cheap hotels for wedding receptions. One half serving as a makeshift waiting room with distanced chairs, four vaccination stations on the other half. No screens or anything; you could sit there and watch it happening to other people. I mean, okay it’s not like it’s a rectal examination or something, but I’d expected a screen, or perhaps it being around the corner.

I’d brought a book (suspecting I would be waiting some time) but to be honest, was too anxious to read. So sat in the chair I’d been placed in, people watching. I was the youngest, by far – everyone else was either in their 50s or 60s. I felt a bit of a fraud, that I was getting this jab under false pretenses; which increased when the man behind me mentioned his COPD. But too late to get out of it now.

The vaccinators were working in teams of two; one with the laptop, the other the needle. Mine was a moonlighting hospice nurse; for we forget, many vaccinators are volunteers. I produced my letter (again), if they were at all surprised at my presence (not being suitably old/ill) they didn’t show it. Once they found me in ‘the system’, quickly ran through the standard safety questions, then they told me that I’d be getting the Oxford / AstraZeneca one. This being literally days before the whole ‘blood clot’ palaver broke.

Then I got jabbed. An anti-climatic event. They used a slimmer gauge of needle than the vaccinations I’d had a teen, I’ll say this much. Then they gave me the ‘drug leaflet’ and a little card with the batch number written on it. Normally, they’d make you wait for around fifteen minutes for any adverse reaction, but as I didn’t drive there they simply let me go home immediately.

* * *

The side-effects kicked in the next morning. No arm soreness or rash; simply fatigue and a bit of a headache – both of these listed under ‘Very Common’ in the leaflet. Did as bidden; took some paracetamol and logged onto the reporting site to, well report it (as this rollout is effectively an extended ‘field trial’).

By that evening I felt a bit better; by Tuesday morning I was ‘good enough’ to go back to normality. Wednesday saw no symptoms at all, save a tiny bit of soreness in the ‘jabbed’ muscle, though to be fair I only discovered this while performing some flys with weights (so is kinda self-inflicted). And by Friday this was gone too. I know a few others who had worse side-effects, but as I pointed out to them later on; I’m a lot fitter than they are.

In the month since then; nothing. I’ve still kept on doing the standard things like washing hands, distancing, mask and so on, because being vaccinated does not stop you from getting it, or from giving it to others – just from you from getting sick. (though there have been reports that it reduces your chance of catching it and giving it to others, which is good).

* * *

I know there’s been a lot of folks my age and under being rather sceptical about getting vaccinated, which is fair enough – we shouldn’t simply blindly accept everything we’re told. Particularly if it’s the likes of Johnson telling you, a man I wouldn’t trust on announcing the day of the week without external evidence. But in this case, he is being truthful.

In the grand scheme of things, the risks of being vaccinated (side effects etc) is much lower than the risks of getting coronavirus and it turning out bad for you. Yes, we don’t know ‘all the effects’ yet, but that can be said about anything remotely new. ‘Long Covid’ is a thing, and something you really don’t want. This disease may primarily be an ‘old person’ thing, but not completely.

Then there is the simple fact that it is now impossible to eradicate coronavirus from the world, or even from the UK. Therefore, the unvaccinated will always be at risk. It’s a simple enough question; do you want to get sick? Oddly enough, the vaccine will probably make it easier for you to catch it because all the vaccinated people will be out and about, giving each other coronavirus without realising it. And soon enough, you. Which will get easier as the restrictions are withdrawn.

The point is simple. Get the vaccine, make the chances of you getting sick with coronavirus become almost nil. The chances of getting an AZ bloodclot is around 300,000 to 1, which is in fact half as ‘risky’ than being killed by a bolt of lightning.

Other people are talking a load of crap. It won’t make you impotent, or autistic, or dead. And Bill Gates doesn’t need to implant a tracking chip in you because Steve Jobs convinced you to pay for your tracker device years ago and Zuckerberg gets you to diligently self-spy.

As everything on this blog, merely my own thoughts and opinions. Part of my Covid Pandemic and Essays series.

Why ‘Immunity Passports’ Are Stupid

It’s an idea which has been mooted by various different people and groups for much of this pandemic; that if people can show they’re immune to coronavirus with some form of indisputable evidence, it means they’ll be able to go on with their ‘normal lives’ – schools, work, recreation and so on. And as millions of people can’t be tested on a daily basis and self-certification is clearly unacceptable, this ultimately means a form of ‘immunity passport’ – something issued by a body generally regarded as competent, which usually narrows it down to basically, governments.

‘No Jab, No X?’

We’ve already seen the first stirrings of this world from Saga Holidays denying customers to Pimlico Plumbers declining to hire new workers if they lacked proof of vaccination – this charge led by the international airline industry, understandably anxious to get their planes flying again as soon as. What’s more, it’s now snowballing; Ticketmaster is mooting the idea to allow large-scale entertainment to resume and whole swathes of British workplaces are following the lead of Pimlico, even ones which aren’t particularly public-facing. Some of them have gone further than the plumbers; they were only saying ‘new workers’ while now ‘current workers’ are being mooted too.

Then, seeing a bandwagon pulling out, the Johnson government had to clamber on – or more correctly, clamber half-on (so they can deny it later if needed) – when the Foreign Secretary Rabb said that a domestic passport system for places like shops and pubs was being considered. Yes, ‘no jab, no visit to Tescos or Costa’ was being mooted by ministers.

Now, I’m not going to bother saying anything about the logistical, ethical, political or even sociological aspect of such a system – other people have done that before far better than I – but once again, there is one massive gaping hole I’m frankly amazed nobody else has noticed. I pointed it a couple of weeks ago, but will spell it out again;

Coronavirus vaccines were designed and made to stop you dying from coronavirus. They were not designed to stop you from getting coronavirus.

I’ll let the good medical folks at The Lancet continue;

A neglected issue in discussions of immunity passports is that of individual protection versus community protection. Perhaps the most important consideration for immunity passports is whether an individual can transmit the infection to others. Evidence from previous work with seasonal coronaviruses and studies of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in macaques suggests that previous infection or vaccination might protect from severe disease but an individual might nevertheless carry the virus at similar levels, and for a similar duration, to those previously uninfected, with an unchanged potential for transmission..

(The Lancet, 16th October 2020)

Put in ‘layperson’, the message is simple; ‘we do not know if the vaccine stops you from becoming a symptomless carrier of coronavirus who can spread it to others’.

Faulty Reasoning?

Once you digest that information and apply it to the situations above, it all gets fishy. Pimlico Plumbers (for example) argued that unvaccinated plumbers might give the virus to frail or sick customers while on a job, a worthy worry. But we don’t know if vaccinated plumbers could infect said customers too. In fact, it is now becoming glaringly obvious that we are not going to eradicate this virus, which means it may become endemic within our societies, but with the wonders of modern science it will be about as dangerous as the flu (we hope, once our treatments etc get upto snuff).

Don’t get me wrong; there are a few areas where an ‘immunity passport’ does make sense. Examples include getting travel insurance (reduces risk of you needing medical treatment overseas), visa requirements (ditto) and workplaces which are concerned about sick-rates (such as front-line workers). These are all situations where – to use The Lancet’s term – ‘individual protection’ is the issue.

Problem is, the Sagas and Ticketmasters of the world are talking about ‘community protection’ (ie stopping you giving it to others) – something which the vaccine may offer between 0% and 100% effectiveness for. Now, some are genuinely mistaken by the nature of the issue, sure; but I suspect here a lot of them are not. They know what I’ve just told you – and they’re counting on you being thick.

It’s a rather safe bet, actually. That if a few thousand of us go on that cruise, or that gig, does it matter if we all end up catching coronavirus if the vaccines have made us good as immune to symptoms? Most of us wouldn’t even know we’d caught it. Problem is, we will then go out and spread it to others and so on, making the virus become endemic within very short order. And that will kill a few folks.

Unfortunately, this is ultimately what ‘living with the virus’ may end up meaning for us all. But then the passports make no logical sense either way; if vaccination stops spread the unvaccinated can get by on herd immunity (like we traditionally do with things like mumps), if vaccinations simply stop symptoms the unvaccinated will have simply run the risks because they can’t hide indefinitely. Either way, passports are effectively useless. Companies are simply clutching onto them as a kind of pretend insurance policy to get their businesses up and running quicker, and to reassure those customers they think can be persuaded by this little bit of ‘coronavirus theatre’.

Ulterior Motives?

The government’s reasoning is a bit more insidious. Rabb knows full damn well what I’ve outlined, and he actively chose not to tell everyone the truth about the coronavirus vaccines. Then he chose not to point out the general stupidity of the ‘immunity passport’ idea.

The main reason, I suspect is due to the old ‘politician’s fallacy’ aka we must do something, this is something, therefore we must do it. Or more correctly, to be seen by the public to be doing something. I’ve detected a bit of a change in ethos recently; ham-fisted and haphazard their actions may be, but there is now (by their standards) a rather cautious, focused approach – the quarantine hotels, gradual loosening of restrictions and so on. To institute some form of ‘immunity passport’ and allow any and all organisations to discriminate on the basis of it is a somewhat easy way to ‘do something’ which has the appearance of being useful and is a sop to the vulgar libertarian shills in the right-wing of the Conservatives who’d frankly not care if a million Britons had died of the coronavirus in the first place (lest we forget that bit).

The secondary reason is a stick to beat the ‘hesitant’ and outright anti-vax with. Being a refusenik is relatively easy when the only real ‘cost’ is to you catching and dying of coronavirus, but as most of the people who are anti-vax don’t think coronavirus is even real, that cost is zero. But throw in the inability to go overseas on holiday, to go to a cinema, gym or nightclub, perhaps not even able to work… well, principles are all well and good, but you can’t pay your bills with ’em, can you?

And that’s the thing which frankly has me in two minds. One half of me hates the idea of mass deception and exploitation of ignorance; even if it is actually for the greater good in this case. The other half accepts that some people are simply really dumb or so far down the mental U-bend that trickery is the only tactic left open to a state which isn’t full-bore authoritarian.

Then I snap out of it, remember this is the Conservatives I’m talking about, recall that mass lying is part of their very nature and exploitation of ignorance is their primary political tactic. And that due to some freak of nature, they are engaging in some displacement activity which might actually have a mildly beneficial side-effect.

I believe the phrase ‘stopped clock’ is the one I’m looking for here.

As everything on this blog, merely my own thoughts and opinions. Part of my Covid Pandemic and Essays series.

Could Vaccines Make The Pandemic Worse?

Another day, another provocative title. But there is method in my madness – and unless I’ve completely grasped the wrong end of the stick, it’s an issue that the general media and the Big Public seem to be unaware of – possibly to our peril.

Naturally, I’m not talking about some loony conspiracy theory, perhaps tied into the ‘useless eaters’ concept or something. I’m not talking about the possibility that we may end up with a some new mutant variant which is resistant and makes a big comeback like a horror film sequel – though that is a risk. I’m not even considering the chance that ‘vaccine relief’ might cause a third wave and we end up re-opening our societies until the vast majority have been vaccinated.

No, I am talking about what I think is a fundamental misunderstanding about the nature of the vaccines we’re being offered. One which is so simple you’ll hit yourself when you realise it.

Coronavirus vaccines were designed and made to stop you dying from coronavirus. They were not designed to stop you from getting coronavirus. A subtle but important difference.

This disease is a bit of an oddity to us, for it’s one where it seems between a third to half of all sufferers are either asymptomatic (not showing any symptoms) or presenting symptoms so mild it’s mistaken as something else. This is a problem which the latest UK Government adverts have done to highlight – you may feel perfectly well, but all the while you could be spreading coronavirus everywhere. Thus the mantra – ‘everyone should act like they have the disease’.

Now put the last two paragraphs together and let us walk to the conclusion. Our vaccination programmes may be doing nothing more than creating hordes of symptomless ‘coronavirus carriers’.

Don’t get me wrong, this is good in the respect that it’s saving lives – which is why the most vulnerable are being vaccinated first. But the issue is that if we are creating said carriers, once we start to re-open society the disease may explode back on the scene, as said carriers all start meeting people again.

The risk here is that coronavirus becomes endemic within our countries; that is always present, continuously claiming a few people (refuseniks, the unjabbable and the unlucky) as it flows around the population. Worse, the numbers of carriers hugely increases the chances of ‘new variants’; the individual chance of a mutation may be (say) only 1 in 25,000 – but if it’s got say 25 million petri dishes, well that’s a lot of rolls of the dice, no? Lastly, there’s the risk of massive flare-ups if carriers make contact with populations which have not been ‘made resistant’ – an historical example being the diseases which the Europeans brought to the New World and helped fell the Aztec and Inca empires.

As I type this, the medical folks are trying to answer the above question. Preliminary evidence from Moderna shows that it perhaps their product reduces the ‘vaccinated carrier’ transmission rates by two-thirds, for example. Other makers are naturally doing their best to work out their own figures. But like before, transmission rates of a third is still a lot if the original number is huge – and still poses a risk to life, albeit a much lesser one.

It’s this reason why I feel that things such as restrictions and so on will have to continue longer than ‘common sense’ alone would suggest. The vaccines need to be studied, to see if any actually stop infection than simply avoiding ill-health. A huge ‘Phase II’ vaccination programme may be required to start within a few months to finally break the virus’ back for good. Or we may have to ‘learn to live with the virus’ for good; with perhaps things like regular mass vaccinations to keep an endemic and rampant disease from sickening others who cannot or will not be protected elsewhere.

The problem is that so few people are talking about this. Too many think ‘vaccine equals end’. This means that it will be incredibly hard politically to not continue with the needed measures if it turns out the vaccine is not the end.

I have quite a lot of faith in people being able to tolerate discomfort and even abject privation when needed. But they need to know the facts, and know what the ‘end game’ looks like. And once again, I feel the British Government and their cronies in the media are not telling us this; though in this case, it’s allowing people to continue to be misled by their ignorance. And that’s dangerous.

As everything on this blog, merely my own thoughts and opinions. Part of my Covid Pandemic series.

Clapping Is Free

Hermes : “What do we do when we break somebody’s window?”

Dwight : “Pay for it?”

Hermes : “Heavens, no! We apologize! With nice, cheap words.”

(Futurama; Route Of All Evil)

So, Annemarie Plas – the originator of the ‘Clap for the NHS’ move we saw during the first Lockdown last Spring – tried a re-launch of it as ‘Clap for Heroes’; seemingly taking on board the criticisms I made of it nine months ago by making it more inclusive.

Reports say that it didn’t go so well this time.

Now, I’d like to say here and now that I don’t blame Ms Plas one bit for this. I fully grant ‘good faith’ and intentions for her attempt. In fact, it’s not even her fault that it didn’t go so well. For the reason why it didn’t is the one I felt at the time (it’s the ‘ I take issue with this idea on principle’ thing I said in the post).

This principle was/is the fact that basically, clapping is free.

It doesn’t require us to do anything, save clap. It didn’t require any sacrifices, or change. And while it made such workers feel better at the time, well feelings don’t pay the bills, good intentions don’t reduce their workload and being thanked doesn’t ignore the fact the country has spent the last decade slowly ripping apart the very services we were relying on.

In effect; tokenistic bourgeois slacktivism. Something which makes us feel good. To join all the others which have floated around with a hashtag over the last few years. And like the others, we forgot ever so quickly.

Including the government. Especially the government.

They spent the summer basically going back to shitting on our ‘Heroes’, only accepting public opinion just enough to except basically, front line, low-grade nurses from yet another pay freeze. For the record, this means they’ve had literally one raise in twelve years and are in real terms earning fifteen percent less than in 2008.

Worse, they spent this time ignoring their requests, queries and worries. Even in June, various groups – teachers, doctors, social carers and so on – warning that ‘winter planning’ needed to be put in for the ‘second wave’ were were going to be facing.

The government reply was basically; sit down and shut up. We know best. Are we damn surprised that they didn’t? We had perhaps four/five months to lay in supplies, train people and so on; but instead the government was dicking about with getting people to start commuting, having Sunak’s ‘Meal Deals’ and general denial of reality – in this case winter happens. It did not take a genius to work out where the pandemic endgame was.

And now we’re reaping the whirlwind, and said ‘heroes’ are fucking angry the times they can get enough energy to feel an emotion save tiredness, depression and fear. You want quotes; here’s a Nursing Times article full of them. And they’ve got a lot to be angry about. Our NHS is facing perhaps the biggest challenge in it’s 71-year history and it’s getting worryingly close to complete collapse.

Not just at the government, but us too; acting the way we did over the summer and autumn. And for putting up with the government’s lies. No, they’re not grateful for the clapping for it’s bullshit and solves nothing. Here’s a couple of quotes from a couple of said ‘heroes’ via social media;

“It’s patronising, it’s annoying, it’s irresponsible (people used it as an excuse to socialise last time) and it’s MEANINGLESS. If you want to help, volunteer, raise money, and campaign for a living wage.”

“Nope. Instead of asking everyone to pointlessly clap, ask them instead to put their masks on properly. Remind them that it’s supposed to go over the nose as well. Do something constructive, ”

Couldn’t put it better myself.

As everything on this blog, merely my own thoughts and opinions – save the two quotes. Part of my Covid Pandemic series.

Stop-Go Coronavirus?

This week has perhaps proven the old adage ‘a week is a long time in politics’ completely correct; we’ve gone from Prime Minister Johnson hailing the relaxations of restrictions for Christmas to a de facto ‘Lockdown III: Boris The Killjoy’ for a third of the country – including myself.

Cue heaving shopping centres and streets as folks tried to condense several days of ‘non-essential’ shopping into at best a few hours (including this humble writer – learned from last Lockdown) and a massive glut of folks trying to ‘beat the ban’ by getting out of the affected areas; the motorways and railway termini resembling the scenes of mass evacuations before the shit hits the fan in a disaster film.

Leaving aside the fact this has been an excellent method in distributing coronavirus to other parts of the country immediately and piss off perhaps eighty percent of all people, this whole affair stinks of the reactive, ad-hoc, dithering and pollyannaish actions regarding this whole pandemic from this government. Okay, there is the ‘unforeseen’ – like this mutation in the virus – but let us not allow Mr Johnson and co to use that excuse to get away from the fact we were looking at the charts all going the wrong direction even without it. For several of the factors were predictable and they chose instead to ignore them.

The fundamental problem is – as far as I can see – there is no actual general plan (perhaps there is but nobody is telling us). What instead we’re seeing is classic ‘stop-go policies’ which the UK has had before, though in a different guise and area of our lives.

‘You Never Had It So Good…’

A memorable line, uttered by the then Prime Minister Macmillan in 1957. Here, he was referencing the (relative) glut of consumer goods and so on; something which was in even starker contrast to the privations and sacrifices of the previous two decades of economic depression, war and Austerity.

However, that line – and the materiel wealth – hid the fact that the British economy wasn’t in that good a shape. Her European competitors were rapidly closing the economic gap, her innovation and investment was lagging and exports here hamstrung by an overvalued currency. What’s more, the ‘long term’ solutions to this carried costs which were considered too high politically, and thus were not taken. Instead, they came up with the idea of ‘fine-tuning’.

Economic Sailing

The principle was simple. That like a sailing boat on the ocean, the rigging, sails etc would be shifted to take account of the situation, allowing a ‘better sail’ towards the destination (greater prosperity). That if it was going too fast and the boat was taking on too much water, speed would be reduced and so on.

That as economic activity is in cycles, you’d be able to mitigate – or remove entirely – ‘boom and bust’ by putting on the brakes in a ‘boom’, and pressing the accelerator in the ‘bust’ to even it out; a policy known in economics as ‘counter-cyclical’.

Naturally, it didn’t work out that cleanly. These things usually don’t.

Stop-Go!

Firstly, the governments – of all political stripe – lacked sufficient, current and accurate information. To go back to the boat analogy again, it was akin to a craft where the speed report was from ten minutes ago, you’re not exactly sure of your current location, your compass is poor and only have a vague guestimate of the size of your boat. How can you ‘plot an accurate course’ when all that is against you?

This meant that often the would be a mis-match between policy and current situation. Cutting taxes to spur spending is all well and good in a recession, but it exacerbates a boom. Their understanding of the ‘levers’ itself was somewhat basic; for example, we now know that cutting taxes on the poor, not the rich is the best way to increase consumer spending.

Next, there was the ever-present temptation to dick around with the ‘fine-tuning’ for political ends; from governments with shaky majorities bribing key areas to the now-classic ‘Budget giveaways’ where the Chancellor bribed large swathes of the population prior to a General Election. Deliberately stoking a boom to get a landslide (as happened in 1987) is never good; it’s akin to plying a drunk person with even more drink so you can sleep with them when you’re supposed to be the chaperone.

Lastly, it was all too often used as a surrogate for lack of long-term plans or sorting out the critical issues. To use another analogy, it was akin to deal with a person’s long-term problem of sleep deprivation by simply giving them more caffeine.

The end effects of ‘fine-tuning’ led to it being called ‘stop-go’; for the speed would increase, inflation would shoot up, the economy overheated and then the brakes would have to be slammed on. That the constant chopping and changing of currency restrictions, taxes, quotas and rules meant nobody had the foggiest whether something legal today would be so next month, which was a drag on things such as investment.

Not In Front Of The Voters?

Just like the details are eerily similar, the causes are also; at least I think they are. We have in power a bunch of intellectually mediocre ‘patricians’ who are loathe to admit to us lessers the uncomfortable truths, partly due to a fear the messenger will be shot and a suspicion that we don’t have ‘the mettle’ to put up with bad news, but mainly because it would require them to admit that they don’t have a fucking clue and that they’d made past mistakes.

They have no ‘exit strategy’, no ‘grand plan’. They think in newspaper headlines, hoping that simply wishing it so will make it occur, but all the time, anything nuanced turns to slime in their hands – the ‘world beating’ testing regime a case in point. It’s why we have ended up with another lockdown; it’s a blunt instrument but the only one which the government knows actually works. Then when the immediate crisis recedes, they over-loosen, which causes cases to soar, which only a lockdown can sort out. This means that neither people nor organisations can plan, for the constant dicking about means nobody knows what tomorrow will look like – just ask any restaurant who got in a load of perishable food in the now vain hope they’d make a bit of cash during Christmas.

That is the fundamental issue; this government is incompetent. It’s unable to organise things, or move deftly, or think things through. Look at the graphs; the rates were going up rapidly for weeks and nothing was changing in the situation to suggest the rises would level off. Interestingly, the only department which seems to have a modicum of competence appears to be the Treasury; this isn’t really surprising due to the fact finance is now always the most powerful department in any organisation in the UK.

However, even after all of that, there’s another reason for a complete lack of candidness – face. To admit the truth means our ‘masters’ will lose face to us plebs, that we will see they are as mediocre as we are. You can’t doff your cap and tug the forelock if you don’t think they are intrinsically superior to you. It’s the ‘aura of leadership’ which must never be dented.

For if we accept they were wrong about something, it means they might be wrong about other things… wait, isn’t there something else important happening in two weeks?

As everything on this blog, merely my own thoughts and opinions. Part of my Covid Pandemic series.

University: Product Not As Described?

In a way, Coronavirus is like Donald Trump for journalists; it’s the gift which simply keeps on giving. In this case, it’s the increasing levels of University students being put under lockdown conditions on campuses, the cancellation of some to all face-to-face teaching and the possibility that some may even be forced to endure the Christmas / New Year period stuck in their term-time accommodation. Even more important than we older folks would imagine; what with the glut of university students due to our seeming utter obsession with the thing.

Ramifications

Lockdown; some which are even stricter than the ones in the spring – not even allowed out to exercise or shop. Result; 24/7 of staring at the walls, some of which will be close indeed, if you take into account how small some Halls rooms are.

Physical isolation; effectively no food or drink with another; games, sports and similar all verboten. Some have cancelled all physical contact with other students and/or their tutors. If the screw is tightened (say due to a case) often a whole residential building or class is thrown into quarantine – backed up with university sanctions if broken.

Allowing some adaptation to suit your own circumstances – could you live under these provisions for months on end? My answer is simple; no. My glorified squat of a flat may be too small legally to even be constructed as such now, but at very least I did not have to share my kitchen or bathroom, was bigger than a glorified cupboard and contained items to alleviate cabin fever, such as books and dumbbells.

What’s more, I could still leave. Even taking work out of the equation, I could still visit shops and take my daily ration of exercise; which in my case was mainly jogging or going for long walks. To use an analogy; while I may have been imprisoned in a cell for the best part of three months, but at very least I was allowed walks in the yard.

Speaking of cells, I didn’t have a cell-mate either. Speaking as a Kid From Care, having to share physical space with complete strangers sucks indeed. Yet, now many tens of thousands of first-year students are being forced to do this – and there’s no escape.

Pile Up The Stress

Another thing which needs to be remembered is the people being subjected to this; mainly those in their late teens and early 20s. First year students will be getting it worse of all – for almost none will be familiar with the situation of you actually living away from the parental home. For a decent slice, this will be the first time they’ve moved away from where they grew up too. Okay, this is kinda theoretical an issue for me (due to being said Kid From Care) but I’ve seen the reactions from enough to know this can be a Big Thing.

In these cases, people end up creating ersatz ‘families’, through friends and so on (this also happens in places like children’s homes). Yet, with the massive restriction on socialisation – how will said students make the friends? Online can help plug this gap, yes; but we are social creatures, and as anyone in elder care knows, loneliness can kill.

Financialisation…

However, the most important issue is that students are paying the best part of twenty thousand pounds for the privilege for renting a room and watching Zoom lectures. As a few people have pointed out, most of these could have done this for half the price with an Open University course from their own bedrooms. A situation exacerbated by the fact the chances of part-time work will be even less than before, what with the combination of student-related closures and the general recession we’re about to enter.

This leads to the obvious question; why. As in; why were Universities re-opened ‘as normal’? Anybody who’s been a student or parent of one knows diseases spread like wildfire, like meningitis. We also knew that coronavirus was bound to flare up again in the autumn. That students would be the ideal vessels to deliver said infections back to larger family units over the Christmas period, just like primary school kids giving their families head lice. And the answer is depressingly simple; money.

Universities are now de facto businesses, always looking to get more ‘surplus’ out of their students. As they’re unable to raise their tuition fees above the nine-and-a-bit grand per year, they’re reliant on ‘extras’ to puff up the surpluses – Halls rentals, selling advertising space, sponsorships, retail unit leases and so on. No physical students, no income – not even from the vending machines.

This is even more serious an issue for most universities are wallowing in debt. A massive glut of spending on Shiny Stuff to impress possible customers, a thick padding of administration staff, the use of marketers, brand managers and so on. Naturally, said debts need to be serviced; and as their best money-makers – international students – have been crippled by the pandemic, they need to sweat their remaining customers – UK students – as much as possible to make up for the shortfall.

…And Commodification

You’ll notice I started to use the term ‘customer’ in the last paragraph. For that is what students have become to their university administration – sources of profit, nothing more. In the administration’s minds, a ‘university education’ is just another commodity to be bought and sold at whatever the markets will bear. Don’t blame them for this; it’s the logical conclusion to the series of marketisation reforms which began in the early ’90s and culminated under the Cameron pseudo-Coalition Government twenty years later.

To their credit, universities generally realised this, asking for government assistance over the summer. This being denied, they were forced to get their UK-based customers back into the campuses, simply so they can get their rental income. While they’d prefer the customers to be able to make more a financial contribution by consuming other things such as retail, they’ll be content enough to charge perhaps £500 a week for Zoom lectures, a box-room and free Wi-Fi.

I wonder if we can put a mark-up on ‘room service’ food deliveries?

End Of The Line?

My thought is this; two can play at this game. If a student is just a customer and education just a commodity, well I’ll say to the students of Britain – you’re being short-changed.

You were partly paying for an ‘university experience’ which may for the most of this year be variants of sitting in a small room with your laptop. You were deceived into thinking it was okay to come back to campus. While you were clearly aware that it wouldn’t be exactly like normal, you at least didn’t think it would be a variant of a 33-week house arrest.

If this was a restaurant and you only got half a meal, you’d get a discount. If you went on holiday and all the entertainments were shut, you’d have reasonable grounds for some recompense. Yet as universities are not de jure companies, you’re apparently exempt – a line being backed up by the government, who basically don’t give a shit about you on this case.

But while Coronavirus threatens to kill or maim British universities, it’s mainly due to the fact they were not in rude health beforehand. The staff and students alike have been more ruthlessly ‘sweated’, marketisation has corrupted standards, teaching has degraded, it’s become overly reliant on international – particularly Chinese and Indian – students, and worst of all – their ‘final product sold’ is becoming hugely devalued.

Bankruptcy or bailout; this will be the ultimate decision at the Government’s door. Or more likely, bankruptcy and then bailout when the Ministers realise the Deans weren’t exaggerating…

As everything on this blog, merely my own thoughts and opinions. Part of my Coronavirus 2020 series.

Johnson’s Bouncing Cheque

Cheques in themselves are pretty archaic now; redolent of a now-vanished world of giros, phone cards and teletext (for those not old enough to remember these, a cheque was a kind of ‘permission slip’ allowing the holder of the cheque to take the stated money from your bank account and put it in theirs) but the analogy holds up regarding our current Prime Minister.

You see, cheque-writing was all about trust, faith. For your marvellous items, shoppie – I shall present you with a slip of paper which in reality is just a promise you’ll get paid in between three and five working days after you’ve dropped it off at the bank. Which was the main weakness of it; I’ve taken the goods and scarped long before you realise that the cheque was defective for a myriad of reasons, such as being for a closed account, stopped by the cheque-writer or simply rejected due to lack of funds – aka ‘bounced’.

Therefore, any person desiring to commit cheque fraud would need to win the mark’s trust – they’re called confidence tricksters for a reason! Common methods include giving the impression of prosperity, having a gift for the gab and the ability to perform distractions when needed. In an ideal situation, the mark should only start wondering that something was amiss after the tricksters’ left and their spell is fading.

The start of the ‘Second Lockdown’ (with the prospect of tighter controls later ‘if needed’) is stark proof that a lot of the rhetoric over the summer from the Government and their flunkies was a load of crap. Now, while a couple of Ministers were somewhat candid about ‘a possible tightening in the autumn’ and experts tried to sound the alarm, this was lost in the ocean of bluster mainly being put out by the Prime Minister.

While there have been a few exceptions (travel bans, local lockdowns) the general direction since the end of May has been of ‘relaxation’ of the pandemic measures. From the resumption of debt hassling to re-opening of shops; every announcement seemed to be pushing us step by step ‘back to normal’. While I do have issues about how and when these were done, that’s for another time. No; my beef today is about the fact that Mr Johnson figuratively wrote us all a bouncing cheque.

He effectively promised us that over the summer that the pandemic was ending; the light at the end of the tunnel and expressing hopes that everything would be normal by Christmas. Oh, he never said this outright, but the inferred messages were there – I’m British, I get the whole ‘nod and wink’ shit. And I think he is one of the reasons of why we’re starting to see this second wave; he talked down the continuing threat of Coronavirus to the point that by July less people bothered with precautions. In fact, we’d be in worse state if more people had believed him.

There’s a problem with my analogy; while a con-artist would have run off by now, Mr Johnson is still standing there. But I think I can answer that too – for Mr Johnson is a man who’s never had to deal with the fallout of his bounced cheques, figuratively or literally.

This, in a way is part of his charm; his boyish enthusiasm, the Micawberish optimism. It’s what makes him a great vote-getter who delivered the goods last December. He’s a man who either has not bothered to learn and/or does not believe the stories about the difficulty of things, so he’s able to maintain a naiveté which when combined with the Public School arrogance, comes over to us proles as ‘confidence’. It’s a continuing weakness of the British psyche, it seems; to mistake a posh voice, a verbose vocabulary and a hauteur manner as ‘leadership’ and ‘intelligence’. It’s the only theory I have to explain the popularity of Rees-Mogg, save actual insanity taking hold in the British public.

Much of this mentality is borne, naturally from being reared in a world of wealth and privilege. Now, while I’m not saying growing up wealthy automatically creates indolent idiots of the Bertie Wooster stamp, it does create people who believe that the world basically runs in their favour. An assumption which is generally true; after all, a man of Johnson’s shoddy brilliance, Churchillian pastiche, chequered personal life and questionable track record wouldn’t have become Prime Minister otherwise.

And it’s this which is why Johnson bounced his cheque off us. He’s used to someone paying it off, or being able to ignore it, or bluff his way out of it, or not really matter. In short, he’s never been really called to carpet for his mistakes, or suffer the true consequences of them. And unfortunately, the man is in a job which if it fucks up, it’ll fuck up in a grand scale.

And the main fuck-up here being; loss of trust. After all, would you accept another cheque from a man who didn’t even apologise for giving you a dud one before?

As everything on this blog, merely my own thoughts and opinions. Part of my Covid Pandemic series.