The results are in. Slightly less terrible than the exit poll showed, but still awful; best Conservative number of MPs since 1987, something which is more impressive when remembering that this time around it’s basically minus Scotland. Labour standing slightly above the nadir of 1983, gaping rips in the “Red Wall” of the heartlands in the Midlands and North. The question is simple: why?
As you’d guess, I have my theories. And as I’ve noticed the shocks and the “how did this happen!” exclamations coming from the progressives online, I’m gonna tell you.
But you’re not going to like it…
#1: Brexit. When you drill down into the statistics, you’ll see that the Red Wall was mainly in solid “Leave” constituencies. The “second referendum with Remain” option finally proffered was the last straw for many of these people; but the “sawing of their patience” began years earlier, when the various progressives continuously derided them as “stupid”, “duped”, “closet racists” and the like. The huge cracks appeared when Labour MPs continuously “thwarted Brexit” in the Commons.
For fuck’s sake, did you not think said “Lexiteers” would hear your snarls? Go over their heads, perhaps? That their loyalty to Labour was so tribal you could take it for granted, that they could be safely pissed on? That your constant predicting of doom and gloom about Leaving was on the histrionic side? That when you’ve already got so little, the view of “well it can’t get fucking worse” becomes stronger? Or that EU membership in many of these people’s minds are – to paraphrase the late Tony Benn – “just a neoliberal capitalist project” which didn’t benefit them?
Progressives, you were completely fucking tone-deaf to the “mood music” coming from our Rustbelt. But remembering, that this also includes our rotting seaside towns, the decaying pockets in the South-East, the isolated “backwoods” in Wales. These were places you either took for granted or desperately needed to take to deny Johnson a majority.
#2: Antisemitism. The constant dripping of allegations were bad enough; this did hurt within the “progressive” areas and perhaps threw a dozen or so constituencies. However, the worse thing was that this helped provide the general “mood music” that Corbyn and his inner circle were incompetent.
The logic in this is simple. If Corbyn had “proper control” of the party, he could have “got rid” of the anti-Semites with one big brush of his broom. Therefore, his inability to deal with it showed that he was either incompetent and/or weak. And how can such a man run the country if he can’t control his party?
Perhaps unfair, but politics is rarely fair.
#3: “Limp-Wristedness”. This has always been one of the major Labour fault-lines; while the “progressives” desire dialogue, understanding, compromise, the “musculars” desire to see strength, sticking with principles and “doing what’s right”. This is the key arguing point when it comes to the likes of defence, police, prisons, laws and suchlike. The latter faction is the “Labour steel”, which allows people to feel that the country will be safe with a Labour Prime Minister.
Corbyn and his inner circle failed hugely on this. The man was a “known peacenik”, but one who’s judgement was distinctly spotty (plus; opposed Iraq War, minus, called Hamas “friends”). He simply didn’t give the impression of a man who had strong enough convictions to do “the right thing” when the chips were down; that at a time where we’d need a “Thatcher-at-the-Falklands” we’d instead get a “Chamberlain-at-Munich” instead.
This could have been counteracted by a vocal “muscular” in a senior position or two; perhaps one who had the aura of being a bit of a “street-fighter” if needs be; in effect, Corbyn needed a Ernest Bevin, Dennis Healey or John Prescott at his side. However, this wouldn’t have been enough to deal with several of his “mistakes”, such as not being more forthrightly scathing towards Russia from the Salisbury poisonings or dodging the “would you use The Button” in regards to nuclear weapons.
#4: Pissing off “Mondeo Man”. One of the fundamental issues with Labour is that it’s always had a “hair shirt” faction; one who’s never been comfortable with wealth or consumption. This is exemplified by Blair’s coining of the (perhaps hypothetical) man he’d met in 1992 who’d switched to voting Conservative as soon as he managed to get the middle-class “trappings”, such as his new Ford Mondeo. That for him, “Labour” was “working class” and therefore had no space for him.
We saw this mentality return under Corbyn. Too much talking about improving social housing, not enough about helping people buy their own homes. Going on about increasing the minimum wage, not how we can get people earning above this. Slamming the likes of private schooling and other “trappings”. Talking about how to “divide the cake” more equally, barely a (relative) peep on how to grow the cake.
This was poisonous. Not only did it alienate possible wavering liberals and tiny-c conservatives in the middle classes, but also kicked the “aspirational” working classes by making them feel bad for wanting to “get on”, and that Corbyn and co would “hammer them” the second they did so.
#5: Spending Orgies. At first, the “spending plans” didn’t look too shabby; radical, but not insane. Then the amounts started to balloon, the “believability rating” slumped, and next thing we saw was a myriad of rash, stupid promises – such as cutting rail fares. This led a significant slice of the electorate to feel that Labour were either economically illiterate or simply scamsters – and either of these options were naturally bad.
Labour should have been much more prudent; pose themselves as the “sober businessperson investing” rather than “drunken idiot chucking the cash about”. Some things would pay for themselves, and should have taken centre stage; mass council home building programme, “buying out” PFIs and rail franchises, a drive for better internet, science and infrastructure. All things which would add to the “capital stock” of UK.plc – and show the likes of the “small businessperson” that Labour knows how to grow cakes, not just consume them.
That Labour should have not been afraid to say “we can’t afford that at this time”, “we need to plug the economic holes in the country before increasing the goodies” and “we’d like to, but we’ll have to see just how much the super-rich have stolen from the people first”. And they should have limited the amount of “big ticket” items to say six-eight maximum; so they didn’t overwhelm people’s minds as being a “spending orgy”.
#6: Progressive Identity Politics. Simply put, the “ordinary person on the street” (an almost mythical person, but bear with me) doesn’t give a flying toss regarding what people “self-identify” as, the myriad of gender-neutral pronouns, “intersectionality” (even I’m somewhat unsure what the hell this is), “while/male privilege” and all this fluff. What they care about is – as Walter Mondale stated in 1984 – the beef, the substance. The things they care about; schools, hospitals, jobs, homes, family. Nothing wrong with this; after all “enlightened self-interest” can be one of the most powerful forces on the planet (for good or ill).
As I’ve said repeatedly until I’ve been “purged”, such progressive worries are minor indeed when compared to the true problems; banging on about the “correct self-identification” means fuck all to a person who’s homeless, malnourished or seeing their world continue to sink into the shit. What we’re seeing here is a complete inability to see what is really important.
This myopia is – I fear – endemic to the whole of the Momentum movement. That they’re more interested in political purity than building up a wide “alliance” and achieving actual power. These doctrinaire views have made them have monochrome vision of the world; one which makes them often unable to see any legitimacy in opposing viewpoints, be it a Conservative voter or… myself, a fairly old-school socialist.
The sheer arrogance of these types. Oh no, they didn’t do a single fucking thing wrong in this election, no – it was the fault of Russian bots, Rupert Murdoch, the lack of “consciousness” in the working class, the Barkley Brothers, “disloyal” elements within Labour, the BBC and their “bias”, the Jewish Chronicle, Nigel Farage, the “hostile media” and so on…
#7: Jeremy Corbyn. In short, the man was not up to the job. Labour “beat predictions” in 2017 because they were fighting the arrogant Theresa May who displayed all the charisma of a tin of Spam and the political nous of a lemming, guided by the most incompetent electioneering seen by a major party in my (then) lifetime. Plus, at that point he was still an “unknown”, and a lot of people were willing to grant him “benefit of doubt”.
Not this time. Many people had by this point “made up their mind” on him, and it was overwhelmingly negative. The only benefit he enjoyed in this case was that he was fighting Johnson, who wasn’t doing too well on the “trust” rating himself. This was even more negative an election than 2017; I bet that at least half the “extra” votes for the Conservatives were in clear “holding nose” territory.
* * *
But, we know that the Conservatives didn’t actually get that much more votes [gained by 2%]. The damage was mainly done by Labour voters either going to the Liberal Democrats, the SNP or simply staying home. It’s simply our electoral system which turned this into a thumping majority.
Well, rant over. That was rather longer than expecting. I think I was “triggered” by seeing Momentum types claiming that it’s all the fault of X, and that the Party doesn’t need to change. Oh, yes it does. It doesn’t need to cravenly try to re-create “New Labour”, but does need to expunge the toxicity, re-build the “big tent” and re-discover it’s core. A socialism which doesn’t object to folks getting rich from their own graft. A “progressivism” which doesn’t exclude anyone. With senior figures who come from all different “walks of life”, so everybody can identify with it. And one which while they dream of a great future, keep their eyes firmly on the arts of the possible.
As everything on this blog, merely my own thoughts and opinions. Part of my ‘Essays‘ series.